Preseason Rankings
Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#18
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#107
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.2% 6.0% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 9.9% 13.5% 4.2%
Top 4 Seed 25.5% 32.1% 14.9%
Top 6 Seed 41.1% 49.7% 27.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.5% 77.4% 54.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.7% 75.8% 52.6%
Average Seed 5.8 5.5 6.5
.500 or above 85.2% 91.6% 74.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.3% 82.0% 56.8%
Conference Champion 5.9% 8.1% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.5% 3.0%
First Four3.1% 2.8% 3.4%
First Round66.8% 75.9% 52.3%
Second Round46.9% 54.5% 34.7%
Sweet Sixteen24.3% 29.6% 15.9%
Elite Eight11.8% 14.8% 6.9%
Final Four5.1% 6.7% 2.6%
Championship Game2.3% 3.1% 0.9%
National Champion1.0% 1.4% 0.4%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 25 - 211 - 11
Quad 34 - 116 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 72   @ Pittsburgh W 72-69 62%    
  Nov 10, 2019 7   @ Florida L 63-70 26%    
  Nov 15, 2019 215   Western Carolina W 86-67 97%    
  Nov 20, 2019 235   Chattanooga W 81-61 97%    
  Nov 23, 2019 248   St. Francis (PA) W 85-64 97%    
  Nov 25, 2019 351   Chicago St. W 93-59 99.9%   
  Nov 29, 2019 30   Tennessee W 74-73 54%    
  Nov 30, 2019 28   Virginia Commonwealth W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 03, 2019 47   @ Indiana W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 08, 2019 81   Clemson W 72-62 80%    
  Dec 17, 2019 155   North Florida W 87-71 92%    
  Dec 21, 2019 79   South Florida W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 28, 2019 313   North Alabama W 84-59 98%    
  Dec 31, 2019 75   Georgia Tech W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 04, 2020 6   @ Louisville L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 08, 2020 91   @ Wake Forest W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 15, 2020 10   Virginia L 61-62 49%    
  Jan 18, 2020 63   @ Miami (FL) W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 25, 2020 41   Notre Dame W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 28, 2020 10   @ Virginia L 58-64 30%    
  Feb 01, 2020 85   @ Virginia Tech W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 03, 2020 5   North Carolina L 81-83 42%    
  Feb 08, 2020 63   Miami (FL) W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 10, 2020 3   @ Duke L 74-83 22%    
  Feb 15, 2020 59   Syracuse W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 18, 2020 72   Pittsburgh W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 22, 2020 22   @ North Carolina St. L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 24, 2020 6   Louisville L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 29, 2020 81   @ Clemson W 69-65 62%    
  Mar 04, 2020 41   @ Notre Dame L 69-70 48%    
  Mar 07, 2020 101   Boston College W 77-65 84%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.5 3.7 1.1 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.7 3.6 0.9 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 3.4 1.0 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.9 3.1 1.0 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 2.3 0.9 0.1 5.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 3.5 5.5 6.3 8.3 10.0 11.4 11.5 11.0 9.4 7.9 5.4 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 95.6% 0.6    0.6 0.1
18-2 88.3% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
17-3 54.4% 1.8    0.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
16-4 25.7% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 5.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.4% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 2.0 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.4% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.6 0.9 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.9% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 3.6 0.4 1.4 2.4 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.4% 99.7% 7.6% 92.1% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 11.0% 98.6% 5.3% 93.3% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.6%
12-8 11.5% 94.5% 3.0% 91.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 94.4%
11-9 11.4% 80.8% 2.1% 78.8% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.2 80.4%
10-10 10.0% 59.7% 1.6% 58.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.0 59.1%
9-11 8.3% 28.7% 0.4% 28.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.9 28.5%
8-12 6.3% 10.2% 0.3% 9.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.7 9.9%
7-13 5.5% 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.4 2.5%
6-14 3.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.4%
5-15 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 2.0 0.0%
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 68.5% 5.4% 63.1% 5.8 4.2 5.7 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.3 5.0 4.3 3.3 1.1 0.0 31.5 66.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0